..."The folks in Tucson, AZ have a better idea—they’re covering outdoor parking facilities with JULY 2010
Tucson is the top go-to place for simpler living, says AARP
By Jillian Berman, USA TODAY Looking to live the simpler life? Look no further than Tucson. AARP The Magazine's Best Places to Live a Simple Life list, out today, bestows top honors on the city of 541,000 in the Arizona desert. Demographers used statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau and other sources to evaluate towns and cities on a variety of criteria, says Gabrielle deGroot Redford, AARP's manager of magazine editorial projects. Once they came up with a list of about 25 cities, editors at the magazine picked the top cities in different areas of the country to make sure that every region was represented. With the economy struggling and readers looking to spend less money, Redford says, the editors wanted to compile a list of places with a low cost of living that offered a wide range of activities."We decided we wanted to focus on places you could live simply," she says. Redford says demographers and editors looked for places that are affordable and still have relatively low rates of unemployment. She added that factors such as the ability to walk and bike to work and the availability of "outdoor amenities" such as farmers markets and hiking trails also gave cities extra points. And to make sure life is really simple, the team looked at the stress index of the cities, a measure used by demographers, which combines "rates of suicide and crime and divorce and depression and other factors that play into how stressed people feel living there," she says. Another plus: if the city is close to a college or university. "We looked for places with great education, in particular, colleges because colleges tend to offer classes for adults and a lot of amenities," such as lectures and sporting events, Redford says. That Tucson is home to the University of Arizona helped boost it to the top. "It's quite an affordable city in part, but it also has a lot going on about it," she says. "There are a lot of ways to enjoy living there." She adds that residents rave about the city's multicultural feel. "They just feel like it's one of those great melting pots." Mayor Bob Walkup, the self-proclaimed "mayor of paradise," says he wasn't surprised to hear his city topped the list. "I believe that Tucson has the highest quality of life of any city in the country," he says. Tucson's temperate climate and low crime rate make it an ideal place to live, he says. "It — no kidding — has an abundance of sunshine year round." Vibe: Latin culture embraces Native American spirit, cowboy grit, and Sunbelt growth 7/16/09: Cost of living index: 109.44 MAY 2009
Thanks for checking in, welcome to my blog! Let me post you up with what's happening in the Tucson real estate market ~ Alan
AUGUST 2010
8/12/10:
Tucson has received more kudos! First, the August issue of "Outside Magazine" has labeled
Tucson as being the best town for road biking in 2010. They reference Sam Hughes' 3rd St. path
to UA, Mt. Lemmon climbing routes, and some 800 miles of designated bike paths.
Secondly, Tucson was hailed as the solar energy leader recently in "Business Facilities Magazine".
Its article states:
solar panels. Futuristic solar arrays are transforming the Arizona landscape and giving Tucson
bragging rights as “The Solar City"...” A review of the article states: "The magazine dubbed
Arizona the “established solar energy king,” saying the state secured the top spot thanks in
part to the manufacturing activity done in Tucson. (Some of the world’s largest solar companies
have in recent years opened shop there.) In fact, Tucson earned one of the magazine’s clean
energy excellence awards beyond the one awarded to Arizona as a whole: it was deemed the
best metro area in the country for alternative energy. While Tucson is hailed as a solar energy
leader, Phoenix, Arizona was not even in the top ten"...
7/15/10:
Hope you enjoyed your extra long 4th of July weekend! July has continued where
May and June have left off - still pretty slow out there, compared to Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr
of this year. The activity levels of those previous months would have made one think that
we must out of the woods. But, sans stimulus, normal May and June slowing, and no monsoons
yet to wake anyone up, things are at a more leisurely pace at the moment. The stimulus days
have gone away, and housing is has been left to heal by itself. Thankfully, interest rates are
ever-cooperating. This month we are seeing 4.75% fixed rates, 30-year mortgage, and only
3.875% for the 15-year loan. This sub 4% rate is the lowest I have witnessed in 24 years of
selling houses!
The national picture is showing us a mixed bag. Jobless rates continue to be less, and that
is surprising and good. The bad news is that we are still hearing reports that record-level,
near-future foreclosures continue looming on the horizon. What does that mean for us?
Who knows, but I can tell you that buyers are still showing up and buying homes. Why not,
with rates like the ones I quote above. With a 15-year loan, you would pay it off twice as fast,
and save hundreds of thousands of dollars. Time flies, go for the 15! Before you know it,
you'll be owning your home free and clear! Then you can throw a mortgage burning party!
And, you'll only be paying for taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance from that point on.
This principle works in ANY market!
Tucson recently received another top-of-the-list accolade in AARP magazine.
Their article "5 Best Places To Live The Simple Life", is an interesting and fun
read. We come in numero uno! Here's their quote...
"It's hard to pin down residents on what exactly is so mesmerizing about this desert town, just an hour north of the Mexican border. Maybe it's the beautiful wilderness that rings the city, including about 1.8 million acres of the Coronado National Forest, with its 12 different mountain ranges. Or maybe it's the sweet smell of pan dulce that drifts from the Mexican bakeries. Or maybe it's the unique way the city's Mexican, Native American, and frontier roots have mingled to create a mosaic all its own. "This atmosphere just doesn't exist anywhere else—the people, the natural beauty, the cultural mix," says Elizabeth Rodriguez Miller, 55, who retired last year from her job as assistant city manager. "I feel lucky to live in a place where people can move so graciously from one culture to another." She and her husband, Marc, 57, also like the buzz of downtown with its plentiful restaurants, funky Fourth Avenue arts district, and world-renowned annual Mariachi Conference. And for simple pleasures, there's incomparable hiking and camping."
7/1/10:
Happy 4th of July Weekend!!!
JUNE 2010
6/9/10:
Wading through a hotter, dryer, slower period during these past few weeks, but we
haven't died by any means. Economic indicators are getting stronger and stronger.
Recently, unemployment figures showed a nice reduction, from 9.9% to 9.7% over
the past month. Granted, the figures include the census workers, but in another report,
layoffs were down month v. same month previous year, and that has happened for
12 straight months now!
A new Fannie Mae lending requirement has surfaced as of June 1st. They will require
that a borrower's credit must be re-verified at point of funding to ascertain nothing has
changed during the escrow period. Just a heads up - keep everything the same after you
have made your deal - don't buy something big, like a car, for example, as it could cause
your loan to have to be re-underwritten, which could foul things up at the last minute of
your deal!
MAY 2010
5/12/10:
The big test is on! Hot weather just around the corner, snow birds long gone, no more tax credit, SB1070 looming upon us, UA people doing anything but looking at homes because of finals and graduation, one would surmise that Central Tucson must be deader than a doornail. Not really! Although it is always a little slower paced in May and June, Central is still percolating. Open house attendance is still brisk, deals are still being made. Foreclosure and short sale property is still abundant, even growing (you may have seen the AZ Star article a few days ago on this) and that never helps matters. It is hard to keep hearing these sad stories after all these years. Devaluation is still occurring in parts of Tucson. You may have noticed this article too, (this week's AZ Star), but you would have also noticed that zip codes 85716 and 85719 were least hit by it. This coincides with my blog entry 1/14/10 saying that Central's value was down about 10% from the past 12 months. What is inspiring is that our office's average sale is up about 5% since the beginning of the year. Dare I say that some property is actually increasing in value? No, I better not. Still, this is somewhat exciting news!
APRIL 2010
4/15/10:
Happy Tax Day to everyone! It seems that our economy is warming up. The Dow has been hitting the 11,000 mark again, retail is up 1.5% from March, unemployment rates have been slightly lower and number of homes sold have been up all year. Inventory has gained. Sales absorbtion rates have been steady and more has come up on the market than usual these past several weeks which is giving today's buyers more to choose from! 2 weeks to go for the big tax credit, go for it!
4/1/10:
No April Fooling, it is time to roll if you are going to take advantage of the tax credit stimulus ($8000 first time buyer, $6500 trade up buyer). A deal has to be made by the end of April, and close by June 30th. Please call if you have questions. Activity has picked up greatly, showings, deals, new listings, all are up. Inventory is finally going upwards for the first time in quite a while. More homes to choose from, should you be in a position to purchase!
FEBRUARY 2010
2/18/10:
Just some observations of our new year thus far... As would be normal, many new listings have hit the market since the new year. The pace of new listings has normalized this week. Newly contracted deals are brisk, since about the middle of January. Interest rates continue low, and are around 5% or so. Open house attendance is heavy, buyers are serious, and multiple offer situations are not rare. It feels like our market is finally coming into a fairly normal feel. Not a bad time to sell, and a great time to buy!
JANUARY 2010
1/14/10:
Happy New Year! Results have been tallied - 2009 was a year of both positives and negatives. Central Tucson experienced a huge gain, a 25% higher number of single family homes were sold, versus 2008. Unfortunately, property value has lessened approximately 10% during 2009. Inventory (homes on the market) shrank about 22% v. 2008. 2009 foreclosures hit Pima county to the tune of 29% growth compared to 2008. Rental properties have experienced lower rental income, and vacancy factor is higher. Not to worry, UA student housing is currently experiencing a shortage situation, Tucson's job market is holding steady, and the happening of a new contract made with Singapore and Davis Monthan Air Force Base, with DM lined up to train Singapore's jet fighters, should keep demand going. Allow me to lay another positive note on you...today's Dow Jones closed at 10,710 - the first time it has crossed the 10,700 mark in 15 months. Enjoy your 2010, and don't hesitate to flag me down if you would like more details on the statistics and what lies ahead!
DECEMBER 2009
12/10/09:
Yes, good news, indeed. The congress did pass the bill last month. It extends to April 30th of 2010 and includes an upgrade not previously offered - a chance to use a tax credit of up to $6500, even if one is not a first timer. If one has lived in the home as a principal residence for 5 of the last 8 years, you may qualify for this credit. (previous bill was only for 1st time buyers or those not owning any principal residence for the past 3 years). Very well, the 1st timers get up to $8000 (no change), and those selling a property they've called home for 5 years, and are buying another home, may get up to $6500. Please give me a call if you have more questions.
Hey, need a little motivation this season?! Here's a quote from this week's Business Week:
"Maybe you already have a house and you don't want to move. Or maybe you're a Trappist monk and have forsworn all earthly possessions. Or whatever. But if you want to buy a house, now is the time, and if you don't act soon, you will regret it. Here's why: historically low interest rates..."
Interest rates are 5% +/-. Bad markets do have a life-cycle. The present one won't last forever. Interest rates do go up. They are overdue to go up. Foreclosures continue to hound the market. But, just the same, consistent shrinkage of inventory continues to stabilize the downward pressure on price. The result is a relatively steady property value, slightly down in pockets, over the past few months.
Number of sales (units) have been way up all year. Price is down from a year back, but a definite increase in units sold. People are really starting to hold onto their places if they don't really need to sell, and buyers are feeling it (the relatively scant amount of homes to view). Therefore, if something grabs you, don't hesitate, go for it!
Have a wonderful holiday and I look forward to helping you, this year or next! ~ Alan
NOVEMBER 2009
11/5/08/09:
Good news! It looks like congress has either passed or will pass an extension of the $8,000 tax credit! I am pleasantly surprised to hear this, and it should be official soon. I will have the all the details later, but the credit is extending to April '10, evidentally. Great!!
OCTOBER 2009
10/21/09:
Orange alert to all of you buyers wanting to ride that $8,000 tax credit with a purchase of a first time home...you have about a week left to get yourself into a deal so that you can close by December 1. Anyone's guess if the government will extend this credit, but odds are, it is going away. If you want to be certain, go for it quick! Interest rates are low (5%) and, although inventory is always being beefed up by the ever-present foreclosures out there, inventory is still low and getting lower. So, although you don't have the huge choices of homes you once enjoyed, this fact will continue to stabilize the values of real estate, overall. Don't trick yourself out of a treat and act now!
SEPTEMBER 2009
9/17/09:
We are rolling along and keeping it going... Inventory continues to drop and lots of deals are being made. Value has not risen, so it is a ripe time to buy. Interest rates are around 5.25%, still nice and low. Depending on your individual credit scores, some rates are even below the 5% level!
As far as the $8,000 credit everyone is talking about, red alert! The time clock is ticking... The fact that the last day to get that credit is the last day of November, you really only have about 4 or 5 weeks to get a deal going, allowing 6 weeks for closing time. The deal must be closed by November 30th in order to qualify for it. So, if you want to search on the fly, give me a call!
You sellers out there, although values have not risen, there is less inventory out there to compete with, so it is a fine time to get yourself on the market, if you are so inclined. Some of the extra marketing we have been doing, along with the traditional Long Realty web ads, virtual tours, Arizona Daily Star, magazines, postcard mailers, open houses and the like, we are now additionally getting your home exposed to websites like you-tube, craigslist, facebook, trulia, zillow, and pushing you way up the google list. We also have added m.longrealty.com, a website that works great with smart phones. You will like my complete marketing package,
give me a call!
JULY 2009
7/28/09:
Way to go, Tucson! Yet another Tucson accolade this month!
This time from USA Today front page 7/27/09 quoting AARP Magazine,
voted #1 best place in the nation for simpler living:
Population: 541,000
Median housing price: $155,500
Average commute: 24 minutes
Average number of sunny days: 286 per year
Most relaxing way to spend an afternoon: Enjoying the cool breezes and plentiful
hiking in the Santa Catalina Mountains, just north of town
Simple fun for less than $10: Drinking a beer at the Hotel Congress, where famous
criminal John Dillinger was nabbed back in 1934
Who knew?: The saguaro cacti that grow all over Tucson have an average life
span of 150 years.
Hey Tucson fans, we just got a great accolade in Business Week.
Of all the cities they studied across the nation, we came in at #1
for "America's Best Affordable Place to Retire". Here's the quote:
No. 1 - Tucson
Sunny days: 284
2010 housing forecast: 0%
Tucson, home of the University of Arizona, is a scenic, affordable place to retire. It is surrounded by mountains and the dry beauty of the Sonoran desert. It has its own airport, just six miles from downtown Tucson, more than 100 parks, a good public transportation system, and plenty of public and private golf courses. The university and University Medical Center are among of the state's largest employers.
7/3/09:
OK, real estate fans, June was a big test (no snow birds, UA out of town, hot weather, etc) to see if we could keep the momentum going. And, we did just fine. Sales continue to be going strong, even in the slow month of June!
In other news, interestingly enough, loan officers now need to be licensed (as of May 1st) and it has really weeded out a lot of runnin' and gunnin' types. It is about time! Another point of change on loans, the time to close a deal is lengthening. The usual 30 days is rapidly being replaced by 40 - 45 days. This is largely due to more scrutiny with appraisals, a longer time to appraise than before, and possible re-appraisals if the lender is not satisfied. Loan officers have been asking for more time to fully approve buyers as well, and underwriters are taking more time to review the file before funding.
Please have a safe and sane 4th and enjoy your 4th of July weekend!!
JUNE 2009
6/4/09:
Hello to June! Normally a month that is slower in any market, we are all in for a little test here.
If things continue the way they have been going in April and May, we are probably headed for a sustained positive market. So far this first week, I am still hearing about multiple offers on properties that are well priced.
There has been an upward movement in rates, 5% and above instead of 5% and below. The pace of the foreclosures and short sales has not really slowed down, and continue to apply downward pressure on value. But, this is being mitigated by the fact that more than one offer comes in on a lot of these deals. Also stabilizing prices are the fact that several central neighborhoods are experiencing an inventory level of only 2 - 3 months! That hasn't happened in years!
5/13/09:
Yes, it is truly happening. It isn't just me! Things have heated up in the market quite nicely! April pendings are up 33% versus April 2008. University of Arizona economist Marshall Vest: "The Tucson market did not get overheated. The prices did not get nearly as far out of line. We don't appear to have nearly the overhang of foreclosed houses here." (as Phoenix) Phoenix and all of Arizona have been experiencing the same, if not greater, up-tick in recent deals made.
Fellow agents around me are complaning that their buyers have "lost out on a home", or, "there were multiple offers", or, the most surprising, "we lost, even though we had an acceleration clause" (a clause in the offer saying the buyer will go higher if need be - nearly an extinct clause so many of us had forgotten). This is all so telling ... we have more/less passed the bottom of the market at this juncture. People are out in great numbers looking and buying homes. Sellers are offering some great deals and deep discounts. But we are not experiencing a lot of downward pressure on values any longer. Inventory continues its dive. Buyers continue to enjoy interest rates with "lifetime lows" now in the 4.75 fixed interest rate range. Please get a hold of me if I may be of any assistance! ~ Alan 918-5258
APRIL 2009
4/07/09:
The market is really gaining momentum out there. I don't even have time to write this blog! Suffice it to say, do it now before the lid blows completely off, it is happening! It may be just me going through a personal large amount of new business; I haven't felt this busy in a couple of years. But the new pending stats seem to be backing me up. Go for it!
MARCH 2009
3/18/09:
There is an up-tick in unit sales. Just as the heat is starting to turn up weather-wise here in Tucson, it seems as if the market is heating up, too. Of course, baby stages of progress give us lots to go on; it has been a long, lonely market. So, anything positive is certainly welcomed!
People are getting that interest rates may not be this low forever. People are getting that choice of homes may not be this great next year. People are getting that it is nice when there's still time to rationally decide which home is right, without the multitudes of competitive buyers breathing down their neck. People are getting that their one, two or three top choices of homes may still there for them, compared to the hot market, where, if they made their decisions leisurely, would undoubtedly be forced to deal with only their 4th, 5th and 6th choices, if that.
Buyers are getting off the sidelines and taking full advantage of this buyers market! This is good news for sellers, obviously. The downside is that values are not going up, and sellers still need to be priced extremely competitively. Although inventory is lower by 25% from 18 months back, they still need to stand out clearly from the crowd. And, a little luck of the Irish won't hurt, either!
FEBRUARY 2009
2/25/09:
A first-time home buyer $8000 tax credit has been created for those who are purchasing a home during the time of (going back to) January 1, 2009 to December 1, 2009. It is a relatively narrow window, but a nice tax credit, nonetheless. The nice part about the deal is that you are actually refunded the difference in cash if you owe less than $8000 on your 2009 taxes. Now note, if the home is sold in within 3 years, the full $8000 is recaptured upon the sale. So, stay in it for longer than 3 years! Yes, it does have to be owner-occupied as a principal residence. And, it is only available to those with an adjusted gross income of $75,000 or less, or $150,000 or less on a joint return. Any questions, just holler! ~ Alan Aronoff - (520) 918-5258
2/14/09:
Have a Happy Valentine's Day !
2/10/09:
Not to bore you with the constant stats about this and that, here are just some casual observations of the central Tucson market during the first six weeks of our new year...
1. Open house traffic has increased significantly
2. More buyers have called from signs, ads and online viewing
3. Listings are getting shown more often
4. More deals are being made
5. Very well priced homes are moving quickly
6. Inventory is still on the decrease
7. Interest rates are holding (5% +/-)
8. People are still walking away from their homes if they are
"upside down" and unable right the ship...short sales and
foreclosures are still rampant, but the pace is slowing
9. Short sales and foreclosures continue to keep our values down,
but values are not plummeting, they seem to be stabilizing a bit
2/3/09:
Good game, Cards, you made it to the big time and made it VERY interesting...
Those Steelers didn't cover and this could have gone either way ~
You're still the champions in our hearts!
'till next season!
JANUARY 2009
1/28/09:
Market has done well this month and unit sales over last year are actually up. 1st time in a while! It is good to see that the usual January uptick is happening, even in the down market.
It could be a signaling of better times ahead. There is a lot of folks out there looking at homes and some of them are serious. Interest rates are staying nicely low. Loans and appraisals are going through smoothly. So, overall this new year, good news thus far. More good news: the Arizona Cardinals are in the Super Bowl - take it to the Steelers this Sunday!
We are rooting for you!
1/1/09:
HAPPY NEW YEAR!
2009 New Year celebration in Times Square
Good Morning Viet Nam! Wow, what a year we have been through! Reflecting on this first morning of this New Year, it is a wonder we made it through. After all the "bombing campaigns"
we endured in 2008, I hope we never have to go there again. Admittedly, I am a bit shell-shocked. It is good to be past 2008. There's nothing like the bottom, and perhaps 2009 shall be that great, flat platform from which we can all rise out of the ashes. Together, I know we can do it!
Have a wonderful year. Go into it with the knowledge that we have incredible offerings out there,
sellers are in ultra-low mindsets, buyers are seeking and finding their dream deals, inventory is continuing to fall, and interest rates have never looked better. I look forward to assisting you in 2009. Better times are ahead, to be sure!
DECEMBER 2008
12/11/08:
Well, it is that time of year again! People are out shopping, getting together with family and making plans to get out of town. Normal slowdown is being felt in this already quiet market we are in. Folks have more on their mind than real estate, and many would-be sellers are waiting to come on the market in January so they can have their homes undisturbed and open for their family gatherings today.
Not that it is completely dead, but things are slooowwww. Most of the home sales going on in central Tucson today are of the sub-200K variety. A lot of them are inclusive of those short-sales and bank-owned foreclosures which you are always hearing about. They have contributed heavily to home values going down. The value of "central-central" homes, that is, homes between Swan & Main/Oracle, Prince & 22nd, are ending the year down 12%. Number of units closed is down 23%. But, with new listings scarce this month, at least our inventory is not in a chronic over-supply situation. This will help us maintain our new "bottom" values as we head into 2009.
More good news is that interest rates continue to be lower and lower, with this week's rates around 5%, unbelievable! There has been talk that rates may go down to 4.5% with the feds getting involved again, another incentive-stimulus deal. But this plan is only on the table. 4.5% could happen naturally, as well. Lenders are telling us that these ultra-low rates are for borrowers purchasing a home for themselves, not necessarily for re-financing, and definitely not for investment purchases.
Have a Happy Christmas, a Merry Hanukkah, a Good Ramadan and an Awesome Kwanzaa! All the best for a better year ahead. With any luck at all, we'll experience just that!
~ Alan
NOVEMBER 2008
11/26/08:
Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!
Values are continuing to show a downward trend in the recent past months, but stabilizing in areas. As one said, "Tucson is a local market", and there are markets within general markets. Many areas have stabilized. There are great deals out there which are being watched for, and snapped up by, studious buyers. Rates have gotten lower, yet again, this time around the 5.5 % catagory, and that is always great news!
OCTOBER 2008
10/23/08:
In the midst of this down market, it is nice to see that more homes actually sold in September '08 than August '08. I know that may be not much to go on...what, with evaporating real estate values, consistent stock market crashes, the shrinking dollar, the closing of doors, layoffs, meltdowns, mergers, bankruptcies, bailouts, foreclosures and short sales, it's a wonder we even get up and function anymore! But, September did beat August in home sales. Our inventory is still nicely down from a year ago. Another great thing is that there is still money to be had if you are purchasing a home.
It is still easy to obtain a loan, provided that you show a good income stream and your credit is in tact. And, we are still running with fairly low interest rates, this week dipping below the 6% mark, again. The bottom line is, if you are a buyer, this is as good a time to buy as any. Out of the many homes for sale out there, you will come across some excellent deals. If you are a seller, however, you may want to hold off until a better market exists. Sellers can still sell their homes in this market of ours, it just takes a tough minded-mentality. You cannot get down when showings are slow. You need to reduce your price, and continue to, until the market wakes up on your property. You must be resilient when the offer you are working with is ultimately much lower than you ever visualized. Good luck, Happy Halloween, hope you get many treats, less tricky stuff!
SEPTEMBER 2008
09/10/08:
Interest rates have dipped down very nicely this week as
the implementation of the Fannie-Mae/Freddie-Mac bailout package has commenced. We are seeing rates below 6% for the first time in quite a long while! Do keep this in mind if you feel like you are approaching the "serious" stage of making an offer.
AUGUST 2008
08/19/08:
The long awaited housing bill was finally fully approved and passed earlier this month. Fannie-Mae and Freddie Mac can now breathe a little easier. $300 billion is slated to provide mortgages to troubled homeowners. There is a window of opportunity for some first time home buyers. One of these is a creation of a new program, allowing, with certain rules, a first time buyer a $7500 credit to go towards a purchase of a home that the buyer plans to live in themself. This $7500 is a repayable loan, over 15 years, interest free, at $500 per year. Any residual is due and payable upon the sale of the home.
Other new rules... the FHA downpayment minimum has increased from 3% to 3.5%. The window of opportunity is running on past first-time home buyer programs such as Nehemiah and AmeriDream. There's also a new qualifying rule with newly originating loans where lenders will first look to see that an individual does not already have four other loans outstanding. The new loan would not be approvable if one does.
Please call me if I can expand on these new rules, (520) 918-5258, and, as always, it is very advisable to bring your tax advisor in on these discussions! Enjoy the rest of summer!
JULY 2008
07/23/08:
Following up with the Fannie-Mae/Freddie-Mac fiasco, the feds are considering a $300 billion dollar bailout program that will have a positive effect on the whole industry. This should only help our market here in Tucson, should it pass. Meanwhile, we are continuing to find ourselves in a relatively balanced market, thanks mostly to the ever-shrinking inventory of homes in Tucson.
It has widely been considered that a balanced real estate market contains an inventory of 6 months. Some of Tucson has more than 6 months of inventory, and others, like central and northwest Tucson, have less. Central Tucson actually has only 4.5 months of inventory! Months of inventory is calculated by taking all the deals that have been made in the past 30 days and dividing them by the number of homes currently for sale. New deals (pending sales) are down slightly this month, and values are still flat, if not slightly still decreasing, but less new listings are hitting the market, lots of homes are still selling and interest rates are still good (6.5% +/-).
NOW IS THE TIME TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF OUR MARKET!
You are able to do your research, take your time and make intelligent decisions. If you recall those crazy times of late 2004 through most of 2005, you may remember that our inventory level was less than 2 months. Every home had interest from others; it seemed anything good already had an offer on it, plus another one or two "coming in". Realize that by acting now, you will assure yourself the benefits of a no pressure market, see some great deals out there, and find that you probably won't have to put up with multiple offers.
07/16/08:
We are starting to feel the heat! Things have dropped back a notch as showings have slowed and the 4th of July saw folks vacationing, taking off extra days at work, and doing anything but taking time to look seriously at real estate. That said, we are still experiencing an increase in the sales of existing homes in central Tucson. Our supply overhang still exists, but we're moving in the right direction. Financial giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are on the ropes, financially strapped and looking for bailouts. Interest rates are hovering at 6.5% for 30 year mortgages, so money is still relatively easy to borrow if you have good credit and income stream. Happy Monsoons!
JUNE 2008
06/11/08:
The market is rolling along just fine, thank you. The high heat, departure of snowbirds, UA's summer break, and perpetual negative press we're constantly exposed to, have actually not impacted the strength of our market! More deals continue to be made and less inventory is coming up for sale. Buyers, that the little gem you've been slowly falling in love with may already have an offer on the table. For the first time in a long while, buyers are experiencing more competition from others.
Though we are a ways from finishing with the down-market hangover, we are starting to make strides. It could be several months before the market starts to mitigate the downturn in value (Tucson is generally hitting about 13% off peak, and central Tucson is slightly less). Thus, it is still a fantastic time to make a purchase. It is like you have rolled back time to 2004 and have even more choice. Positive pending figures, coupled with less inventory, are keeping us in, I dare say, a relatively solid market. Keep cool! For a complimentary market analysis, or finding that little gem before it sells, please track me down at (520) 918-5258, or aronoff@longrealty.com
MAY 2008
05/19/08:
These next few weeks are going to challenge the market and really give it a good test, as UA recently concluded classes and snowbirds have headed north. So far, so good! The interest rates are holding, inventory is continuing downward, and, most importantly, the rate of open (pending) deals being made are definitely maintaining their more rapid rate of the past 2 months. So, good news continues, as we pull away from the low point of this market. Good luck, graduates! Give me a ring if you feel like staying right here in the Old Pueblo, and together we'll find that great deal!
APRIL 2008
04/17/08:
OK, folks, it's time to get out there and buy. I am telling you, there is a shift in the marketplace that I am feeling. Not just personally, but talking with the other agents that work similar areas of Tucson. Stats are showing that there's more pending property (houses getting contracts and opening escrow) in March than February, and April is at a brisker pace than March. It is telling me that we may have just passed the low-point of the down market.
Inventory levels for Tucson have dropped from 15 months of inventory down to 12. You are still going to see negative articles talking about foreclosures, short sales, sellers that are upside-down, and median prices that are less than what they were a year ago. However, you will at some point, start seeing articles that touch on a better market ahead, or optimism is turning to realism, etc. And, when you actually start reading these articles, your buying experience will then, most likely, include more competition from other buyers and you may even find yourself up against multiple offers. Multiple offers were almost a thing of the past, but we are actually starting to see them again, believe it or not.
Sellers, please temper your excitement. The market is turning around because you have finally got it with the lower prices and competitive inducements. This is something to build on, we are not out of the woods by any means. Just a heads up...this extended down market we've been in is not going to last forever. And, there are definite signs we are pulling away from it.
If you are a buyer, you might as well take advantage of it now. Your interest rates are back down below 6% and your choices are still many. Your competition level is still low to medium. This will change to high, once the whole market catches on that we are in an upswing, so you may as well keep ahead of the curve on this!
MARCH 2008
03/13/08: LET'S ALL MAKE IT A GREAT 2008! I'LL BE BACK
Just to go along with the stats of 3/6/08, there is a decided lessening of inventory this year versus last year. This is pretty good news and the trend should continue. Sellers are getting it, keeping off the market if they are only trying to test it or hoping for a quick turnaround coupled with false notions of easy money.
This smaller inventory trend shall keep our depreciation of value down to a dull roar. Yesterday's Arizona Daily Star front page article of Tucson's median price of a home being 9% less than the year before, is pretty accurate across the board. Most of the central neighborhoods are running about 10% down from their peaks in 2005. Some pockets have experienced less depreciation, others more so. Suffice it to say, I am seeing depreciation running between 5% and 15%, depending on the exact pocket neighborhood.
FHA has put Pima County's loan limit up to $316,250 earlier this month. This is great news. This means, for qualified buyers, an FHA loan can be had up to this amount, tens of thousands higher than it used to be, with only a 3% down payment. FHA is now much more streamlined as they have been trying for years to compete with conventional financing. We should begin to see an increase in buying because of this.
Remember, although this is not the greatest market to be selling in, if you bought prior to 2004 or 2005, you should still be ripe to receive a tidy gain on your investment. (Provided you haven't refinanced to squeeze cash out of your growing equity). And, if you purchased several years ago, then you stand to make out very well. Sellers experiencing the most difficulty are those who have purchased within the last couple years. Good luck and Happy St. Patrick's Day! ~ Alan
03/06/08:
Well, the only March Madness around here is wondering what happened to the market! City-wide closed sales production numbers are in and they are not pretty. We are off 25% from last year, and that year was down 25% down the year before. So, production is down 50% from 2 years back. The sprawl of new construction on the outskirts of town is skewing the next set of figures, inventory time. At this time, Tucson as a whole, is pegged at 15 months of inventory. If no other homes were listed for sale, this is how long it would take to sell everything currently for sale.
Central sellers can at least enjoy the fact that their neighborhoods have less inventory build-up than our city-wide stats, 6 months of inventory is about average in central. Some central pockets are experiencing even less time. Hang in there, Tucson. There are many cities around the U.S. that have it much worse than us. Plus, we really have held our values compared to much of the country.
Financing is readily available and interest rates are down. This fact, plus the higher inventory, equate to a real break for purchasers. Don't get bugged by constant negative housing press you read. Finding a great deal out there is not hard and you won't have this chance forever. And one thing you won't miss, the once ever-present investor buyer from out of town will most likely not be challenging you for the home, as they have all but vanished from this market. You will be happy, you have leverage, you have choice and opportunity is knocking!
On the other hand, you sellers out there should hold and maintain if you don't truly need to sell. Let a little time burn off the clock. There will be a better day for you in the future. If you must sell, remember to be exceptionally well-priced and it will happen for you.
FEBRUARY 2008
02/16/08:
HEY! Is this a great market to sell in, or what? (Huh? What did he just say?...didn't he mean "buy"?!) Uh, no, although, this is a great time to buy, absolutely. And, if you really don't need to sell, or are trying to flip your way to riches, then NO, this isn't the best market to operate in. But, it can be a great market to sell in, believe it or not. If you have your home priced exceptionally well, your home will actually stand out so significantly, that there is a great chance of attracting a serious buyer, and quickly, too.
There are so many home choices out there for buyers of Tucson property. On one hand, buyers are waiting to come across that one house that has all or most of what they want, and that its price is being perceived as a "smokin' deal". On the other hand, there are hundreds of sellers thinking they are "priced right". And right there is the essence of the incompatibility of this market. "Priced right" is not getting it done. A successful-minded seller needs to be priced even better than "priced right".
Successful sellers need to take a deep breath, get away from thinking that they 'going to take a bath on this deal', and move to a mindset of, "If I really have to sell my house right now, my home needs to be exceptionally well priced." Believe me, you will be happy with the results. Today's Tucson buyer is looking for you. Your home will stand out like bright red on a white target.
Take it easy, Mr. and Mrs. Seller, the majority of Tucson neighborhoods have not lost much property value, if at all, it has been fairly flat for 2 years. A lot of our "dead" inventory out there stems from sellers thinking that value has gone up since 2005, and false appreciation has been added to their asking prices. This is a big reason you constantly see asking prices being reduced. A truly wise seller can enjoy having this competition help sell their home.
For assistance in pricing your home to sell in this market, allow me to give you all the accurate facts and track me down at (520) 918-5258. Hope you all enjoyed Valentine's Day and all the best for the rest of the month!
02/01/08:
Anyone wish to venture a guess on how we ended up the year? As far as value appreciation / depreciation for all Tucson residential property as a whole, year ending 2007 v. year ending 2006? Down a little bit? Down a whole bunch? Up a little? Well, you would be right if you guessed the third choice. We ended the year UP, +1.1 % from year end 2006. So, in light of the scary stories you hear every day and and the semi-panic the media would lead you to believe we're in a state of, we still ended UP.
This is a great market to buy! Buyers out in our marketplace are experiencing low rates and their choice of homes numerous. There is a pent-up demand sort of floating around the sidelines and one gets the feeling that the market could be heading into a stronger phase. By the way, another interesting stat from 2007... Several months in the 2nd half of the year saw a decline in the number of homes for sale, while, at the same time, an increase was noted in overall deals being made. Have a Happy Valentine's Day! ~ Alan
JANUARY 2008
01/22/08:
Wow, the feds cut the federal funds rate again, this time by 3/4 points (75 basis points)! (Mortgage rates are currently hovering around 5 1/2% for a fixed 30-year mortgage, and below 5% for a 15-year fixed) So, what does today's fed-rate cut mean for us? A probability that rates will at least stay nice and low, and, will most likely head even further south! The interest rate climate we're currently experiencing is the kind where you will start hearing things like "mortgage rates are as low as they have been for x (several) number of years", or, "wow, just buy the home to get that wonderful interest rate!" Have a great rest of the month...
01/15/08:
Well, so far so good, this year. Although there is no denying that the market is still slow and inventory is still high, it really isn't all that bad. Buyers are starting to see some fairly well-priced homes out there, and it has resulted in them getting excited and making offers. Sellers are finally starting to realize, in order to entice those fewer-and-farther-between buyers, they really do need to be priced right. Some of them are pricing their properties extremely competitvely and they stand out from the competition. These sellers find themselves with great market reaction and offers on their tables. Deals are turning. Values have not dropped horribly, particularly in the central neighborhoods. Some central areas have held serve, others have sustained a downturn of a few percent from a couple of years ago. Other areas have, unfortunately, seen worse. But, it is looking like we are going to land on our feet.
Among all the doom-and-gloom articles we see almost daily, there was recently an upbeat article in the Star. It was quoting the heads of Long Realty, Coldwell Banker, Realty Executives and Tierra Antigua. The concensus was, the market will be skimming the bottom for a while, followed by an actual increase in value realized towards the end of the year. They talked of an emergence of pent-up demand stemming from so many waiting on the sidelines for so long. Yes, it is true, these real estate leaders tend to be the ever-optimistic types. But, personally, I believe these statements to be, not only bold predictions, but a logical, well-thought out way to view 2008.
So far this month, I am observing some good activity compared to the last quarter of 2007. We may well be seeing the bottom of the market, right now. With the lower interest rates and the many home choices out there, it may be the right time to track me down and do some house hunting! You may time it just right to beat that pent-up demand we should experience after the mortgage industry rights itself and articles start moving from doom-and-gloom, to how our market is showing signs of strength. As always, I may be reached at (520) 918-5258... I look forward to helping you reach your goals this year, and cheers ~ here's to a great buy in 2008!
Sincerely, Alan
01/03/08:
1st bit of good news thus far... interest rates for 30 year mortgages are actually breaking below the 6% figure! As would be normal, 15 year mortgages are even lower, breaking under 5.5 %...
01/01/08:
EVERYONE, HAVE A GREAT NEW YEAR ~
SOON AND GIVE YOU AN UPDATE OF WHAT'S
HAPPENING WITH THE MARKET THIS NEW YEAR...
DECEMBER 2007
12/15/07:
Tucson's real estate market is slow right now, but not dead by any means. It is a great time to buy, given the choice buyers have and record inventory of available homes for sale. Buyers can usually find a house without rushing or experiencing multiple offers. Buyers find sellers are motivated and willing to be flexible. Interest rates are low, near the 6% mark. Financing is easy to get, based on good credit and good income stream.
Sellers, on the other hand, have some challenges. The type of market that we are experiencing forces sellers to be very well priced. Over-priced homes are not only going to sit on the market, but they will also help to sell the competition. A well-priced home combined with lots of creative promotion, bold internet presence, direct target marketing and more open houses than usual are some of the ways to make your home stand out. Sellers, take heart. Tucson values have really not changed much since the heady days of 2005. It is true, we've experience less closed transactions versus '05 and '06. But, for most neighborhoods, our closed values are showing a virtually flat line since '05. Not too bad for a "down market"!
If you wish my assistance, either with buying or selling, or just have more questions, please give a call, (520) 918-5258, and put more than 20 years of experience to work for you.
I look forward to helping you!
I hope you have a great holiday and all the best for 2008!
Thanks, Alan
