Thanks for checking in, welcome to my blog! Let me post you up with what's happening in the Tucson real estate market ~ Alan This news combined with the very positive retail figures of late, we may just SEPTEMBER 2011 Tucson home prices had a run up during the boom years but never with the trajectory of Phoenix, its neighbor 110 miles to the north. "The key word in Tucson is stability," said Tanya Marchiol, whose company Team Investments, buys residential real estate in Arizona. There are fewer vacant homes, about half the foreclosure rate and most homes for sale are in better condition than in Phoenix, according to Marchiol. That has caused it draw more retirees who might otherwise have wound up in Phoenix. Fiserv forecasts continue turndown through the first three quarters of 2011 with prices falling another 2.8%. Then the market will come back strong over the AUGUST 2010 ..."The folks in Tucson, AZ have a better idea—they’re covering outdoor parking facilities with JULY 2010
JANUARY 2012:
HAPPY NEW YEAR! I think 2012 is going to be a break out year! I will keep you posted on
how we are doing from time to time during this new chapter to be. For now, we are
experiencing low inventory levels in the central areas. Low interest rates continue to
abound, right now hovering over the 4% line, and good deals continue to not be ignored by
our market. At mid-month, both myself, and my office, are running ahead of last year,
production and units sold, so we are off and running!
DECEMBER 2011:
Tucson's market appears to be gaining some ground, along with the overall economy.
Besides more units being sold compared to the last couple of years past, retail sales
are up 14% this December from last years December, jobless rates are down, housing
building starts are up and foreclosure notices are down. Almost worth celebrating!
Have a very happy holiday season and all the best for a wonderful 2012!
NOVEMBER 2011:
Exciting news from NAR:
The National Association of Realtors recently released their 2011 3rd Quarter Housing Report.
In the report, they showed that combined sales of single family homes, condos and co-ops
increased in EVERY state as compared to the 3rd quarter of last year.
Here are the state-by-state numbers...you will notice Arizona's is a positive 22.5%!
be experiencing the start of recovery!
Update: Regarding my snippet in September about HOA documents... HOA's will be
able to charge for their packaging and dissemination of information in an escrow.
However, they can only receive these fees upon close of escrow, and are no
longer able to charge this upfront. Further, they will not be able to collect
these costs if escrow ultimately does not close.
October 2011:
A buyer's market? Hmmmm....possibly not so much here in Tucson. Lately I have
shown several well priced homes that buyers get interested in, only to find out that
there is either already a deal on it, or an offer pending an answer from the seller.
What do we have going in the buyers' favor? Basically prices that have not been
seen for a decade or so. Today's prices are more-less matching up with
the year 2000 or 2001. If you bought earlier than 2000, odds are you still have a
tiny bit of extra value on top of what you paid then. Prices are refreshing, to say
the least, and interest rates are still great, 4 - 4.25%. So, yes, one could argue
that this is a real opportunity for buyers buying homes in Tucson. Buyers, just
prepare yourself that you have company. Brace yourself for the chance that
someone else has discovered the same property that you have and may complicate
things. And, realize that our low-and-getting-lower inventory is not helping.
Keep the faith, and you'll land the home of your dreams, just get yourself in
a more patient mood than you would normally!
As we roll full-steam into the "Snowbird" season, things are as they have been much of
these past several months - - 4% interest rates, number of units sold versus last year way
up, for-sale inventory decidedly down, and values of real estate either holding, but most cases
slightly down from several months ago. I did an analysis on a home in La Madera area
(Campbell/Country Club/Grant/Ft. Lowell) and was amazed to find just 9 homes for sale
and 9 other properties currently in escrow, all in this same square mile. Amazing, because
I don't believe I have seen the amount of escrows match the for-sale inventory in years. I
dare say that we are experiencing what could be the start of a prolonged recuperation.
Because of the fact that sellers are holding off selling unless they must, it is dramatically
reducing our inventory levels and putting a damper on the rampant devaluation we
would otherwise be experiencing. Deeply discounted deals from the ever-present
foreclosure property continue to hurt value, yes. Although, because of the lower
inventory and fair demand, multiple offers are getting to be commonplace on well
priced property!
A couple of changes to look for during our next quarter:
1. FHA loans are going to be a less expensive to make happen.
2. HOA demanding fees of title/escrow for the ordering of HOA documents are going
to be a thing of the past. Like they did in the old days, the HOA's are going to have
to get this information in escrow's hands, without demanding any fees.
AUGUST 2011
Very interestingly enough, solds are still well up from last year, same period, 7 months
ending in July, year total units sold, 2011 v. 2010. This is pretty incredible to see, because
of the fact that last year, you may recall, we had that great $6500.00 stimulus plan in effect!
When June 30, 2010 ended this stimulus last year, we all went quiet for several weeks. Prior
to that date, we were really selling lots of homes, because of that stimulus plan. This
year, same period, sans any stimulus program, we are substantially beating last year
in homes sold! Incredible, indeed!
JULY 2011
For Central Tucson, the summer has been good. There are twice as many units sold so
far this summer than last year at this same time. Also, the inventory is down, almost half
of what it was last year at this time. Despite the constant negatives you hear and see in
the news media, Central Tucson seems to be coming out of the doldrums!
In other news, USA Today boasts Tucson is in the Top 10 for best cities to bicycle in!
(isn't that old news!? : ) Enjoy the rest of your summer!
JUNE 2011
Sorry, I have not written for a while! I have been so busy with the business and not just
transactions and new listings, but deals now seem to be extra tough to get through escrow,
and more work is required to see them through these days! Anyway, lots happening since
a few months ago.
First off, the inventory levels are continuing to stay lower than average. Another positive,
more units are being sold than last year. You wouldn't know it from all that you hear or
read about the fact that values still seem to be sinking lower than the last time you looked.
House prices in Tucson are now about 40% off of their median price from the market's high,
which was at the end of 2005 / beginning of 2006. But, at the same token, we are still up
about 20% median price from the year 2000.
Welcome back to an old buyer that has come back to the table - the investor / flipper. Yes,
the market has seen many of these folks coming in with cash, usually looking for the steal,
foreclosure, short sale, AS-IS situation. They put a modicum of money into it, clean up the
property and quickly re-sell it for fun and profit. You may have noticed the article on 5/11/11
in the Arizona Daily Star front page headline "37% of area housing sales are now cash"!
A personal observation - - appraisers are being unusually tough on deals. Even when they
make sense to everyone else involved.... a typical scenario: buyer loves the home, buyer
feels good about the accepted offer price. Seller is happy with the deal. Buyer and seller's
agents both feel good about the price being fair and reasonable. Transaction going as
smoothly as ever - only to subsequently be torpedoed by a low appraisal, destroying
an otherwise "good" deal created by the market. Yes, appraisers are under the microscope,
and are rightly nervous and overly careful. So, they often do not utilize the top comparable
comps, and instead use average, and even below-average comparables, even with the
subject property having above-average upgrades and amenity. If we are ever going to
stabilize, let alone, rise in value, we are going to have to get a lot more support from the
appraisers out there, certainly more than we have been experiencing of late.
FEBRUARY 2011
2/15/11:
Where's the beef?! For those of you who remember this funny commercial, I am relating to it
right about now. It is a little puzzling to not see the beefing up of new listings hitting the market, as
would be normal, this first 6 weeks of the new year. It is quite customary to see many new listings hitting the market in January and February. This year this has not really been the case. Inventory is off, lower in numbers than we're used to, and would-be sellers seem to be pulling back and thinking "I am not selling at this time". Sellers are understanding that values today are about one-third lower, versus the peak. This pullback, coupled with (thankfully) a modest slowing of foreclosures and short sales have our inventory curiously low. This, however, can be a component to recovery. If we're able to see this trend continue, if we are able to continue with a downtrend of foreclosures and short sales, it will play upon supply and demand and help to get us out of the woods. By the way, the tax bills you may have just received from the county may show the devaluation we've experienced, and hopefully you are paying less on your upcoming property taxes!
In other news, Money Magazine recently forecast Tucson to be on the road to recovery, soon,
check out the article below...
Tucson, Ariz.Median home price: $165,000
next 12 months, with prices rising 6.2%.
JANUARY 2011
1/7/11:
Happy New Year!!!
Good for us to get through another trying year. Hang in there, it is seemingly getting better and
better each year we get away from the low point of the market in second-half 2008. People are
getting used to our market conditions and the normalcy is ever so slightly settling in. We had
a very similar number of houses sold in '10 as in '09, though we did experience a devaluation in
Central Tucson of about 5 %. With the record number of short sales and foreclosures, I would
have guessed worse. Central may have not been hit as hard as other areas of Tucson, and
we'll wait to hear what the news has to say, in due time, about that.
Interest rates have spiked up from 4.5% to around 5%, but at least they are low compared to
any other part of the past decade! If this is your year to make something happen, give me a
call or drop me a line!
OCTOBER 2010
10/27/10:
Not as much action this October, but they say now that the storms are in motion in the Midwest,
look out! Evidently, the snowbirds may be on their way to get us jump-started again. After brisk
activity in August and September, Tucson saw an October that was unusually quieter.
Some have said that the relatively pleasant weather the Midwest had been experiencing this month
contributed to snowbirds taking longer to get back over here. We'll be monitoring November with
breath held! Rates remain low, how about 4.25% zero points/zero origination fee for 30 year loans,
and lower for the 15's...If you are looking to buy a home with a loan, or even just want to refinance
your current mortgage, there hasn't been a better time!
SEPTEMBER 2010
9/24/10:
The National Association of Realtors have just announced that August's existing home sales
were up nearly 8% from July. I can certainly relate, August was quite busy for me personally!
And even more kudos for Tucson, it seems like they never stop! First, Business Weekly placed
Tucson 4th of 52 cities for their 2010's "Best Place to Raise Your Kids", read below:
..."Tucson, surrounded by mountains and the beauty of the Sonora desert, is an affordable city
that is home to the University of Arizona and University Medical Center, which are among its
largest employers. It's also a relatively affordable place to live, with more than 100 parks,
a good public transportation system, and many public and private golf courses..."
And, MSN has Tucson ranked 9th in the country for their 2010's "Most Livable Bargain Markets"!
Here's what they say:
"...If you like the desert, but Phoenix and Las Vegas are too big and hot, Tucson might be the place for
you. Although it's just an hour's drive from the Mexican border, its higher elevation makes for slightly
cooler temperatures — only one month with an average temperature over 100 degrees — and much
less air pollution than its big neighbor to the north. And although the city topped 1 million residents in
2008, it has the feeling of a smaller, slower-paced town, locals say, and many of its residents walk or
bike to work..."
8/12/10:
Tucson has received more kudos! First, the August issue of "Outside Magazine" has labeled
Tucson as being the best town for road biking in 2010. They reference Sam Hughes' 3rd St. path
to UA, Mt. Lemmon climbing routes, and some 800 miles of designated bike paths.
Secondly, Tucson was hailed as the solar energy leader recently in "Business Facilities Magazine".
Its article states:
solar panels. Futuristic solar arrays are transforming the Arizona landscape and giving Tucson
bragging rights as “The Solar City"...” A review of the article states: "The magazine dubbed
Arizona the “established solar energy king,” saying the state secured the top spot thanks in
part to the manufacturing activity done in Tucson. (Some of the world’s largest solar companies
have in recent years opened shop there.) In fact, Tucson earned one of the magazine’s clean
energy excellence awards beyond the one awarded to Arizona as a whole: it was deemed the
best metro area in the country for alternative energy. While Tucson is hailed as a solar energy
leader, Phoenix, Arizona was not even in the top ten"...
7/15/10:
Hope you enjoyed your extra long 4th of July weekend! July has continued where
May and June have left off - still pretty slow out there, compared to Jan/Feb/Mar/Apr
of this year. The activity levels of those previous months would have made one think that
we must out of the woods. But, sans stimulus, normal May and June slowing, and no monsoons
yet to wake anyone up, things are at a more leisurely pace at the moment. The stimulus days
have gone away, and housing is has been left to heal by itself. Thankfully, interest rates are
ever-cooperating. This month we are seeing 4.75% fixed rates, 30-year mortgage, and only
3.875% for the 15-year loan. This sub 4% rate is the lowest I have witnessed in 24 years of
selling houses!
The national picture is showing us a mixed bag. Jobless rates continue to be less, and that
is surprising and good. The bad news is that we are still hearing reports that record-level,
near-future foreclosures continue looming on the horizon. What does that mean for us?
Who knows, but I can tell you that buyers are still showing up and buying homes. Why not,
with rates like the ones I quote above. With a 15-year loan, you would pay it off twice as fast,
and save hundreds of thousands of dollars. Time flies, go for the 15! Before you know it,
you'll be owning your home free and clear! Then you can throw a mortgage burning party!
And, you'll only be paying for taxes, insurance, utilities and maintenance from that point on.
This principle works in ANY market!
Tucson recently received another top-of-the-list accolade in AARP magazine.
Their article "5 Best Places To Live The Simple Life", is an interesting and fun
read. We come in numero uno! Here's their quote...
"It's hard to pin down residents on what exactly is so mesmerizing about this desert town, just an hour north of the Mexican border. Maybe it's the beautiful wilderness that rings the city, including about 1.8 million acres of the Coronado National Forest, with its 12 different mountain ranges. Or maybe it's the sweet smell of pan dulce that drifts from the Mexican bakeries. Or maybe it's the unique way the city's Mexican, Native American, and frontier roots have mingled to create a mosaic all its own. "This atmosphere just doesn't exist anywhere else—the people, the natural beauty, the cultural mix," says Elizabeth Rodriguez Miller, 55, who retired last year from her job as assistant city manager. "I feel lucky to live in a place where people can move so graciously from one culture to another." She and her husband, Marc, 57, also like the buzz of downtown with its plentiful restaurants, funky Fourth Avenue arts district, and world-renowned annual Mariachi Conference. And for simple pleasures, there's incomparable hiking and camping."
7/1/10:
Happy 4th of July Weekend!!!
JUNE 2010
6/9/10:
Wading through a hotter, dryer, slower period during these past few weeks, but we
haven't died by any means. Economic indicators are getting stronger and stronger.
Recently, unemployment figures showed a nice reduction, from 9.9% to 9.7% over
the past month. Granted, the figures include the census workers, but in another report,
layoffs were down month v. same month previous year, and that has happened for
12 straight months now!
A new Fannie Mae lending requirement has surfaced as of June 1st. They will require
that a borrower's credit must be re-verified at point of funding to ascertain nothing has
changed during the escrow period. Just a heads up - keep everything the same after you
have made your deal - don't buy something big, like a car, for example, as it could cause
your loan to have to be re-underwritten, which could foul things up at the last minute of
your deal!
MAY 2010
5/12/10:
The big test is on! Hot weather just around the corner, snow birds long gone, no more tax credit, SB1070 looming upon us, UA people doing anything but looking at homes because of finals and graduation, one would surmise that Central Tucson must be deader than a doornail. Not really! Although it is always a little slower paced in May and June, Central is still percolating. Open house attendance is still brisk, deals are still being made. Foreclosure and short sale property is still abundant, even growing (you may have seen the AZ Star article a few days ago on this) and that never helps matters. It is hard to keep hearing these sad stories after all these years. Devaluation is still occurring in parts of Tucson. You may have noticed this article too, (this week's AZ Star), but you would have also noticed that zip codes 85716 and 85719 were least hit by it. This coincides with my blog entry 1/14/10 saying that Central's value was down about 10% from the past 12 months. What is inspiring is that our office's average sale is up about 5% since the beginning of the year. Dare I say that some property is actually increasing in value? No, I better not. Still, this is somewhat exciting news!
APRIL 2010
4/15/10:
Happy Tax Day to everyone! It seems that our economy is warming up. The Dow has been hitting the 11,000 mark again, retail is up 1.5% from March, unemployment rates have been slightly lower and number of homes sold have been up all year. Inventory has gained. Sales absorption rates have been steady and more has come up on the market than usual these past several weeks which is giving today's buyers more to choose from! 2 weeks to go for the big tax credit, go for it!
4/1/10:
No April Fooling, it is time to roll if you are going to take advantage of the tax credit stimulus ($8000 first time buyer, $6500 trade up buyer). A deal has to be made by the end of April, and close by June 30th. Please call if you have questions. Activity has picked up greatly, showings, deals, new listings, all are up. Inventory is finally going upwards for the first time in quite a while. More homes to choose from, should you be in a position to purchase!
FEBRUARY 2010
2/18/10:
Just some observations of our new year thus far... As would be normal, many new listings have hit the market since the new year. The pace of new listings has normalized this week. Newly contracted deals are brisk, since about the middle of January. Interest rates continue low, and are around 5% or so. Open house attendance is heavy, buyers are serious, and multiple offer situations are not rare. It feels like our market is finally coming into a fairly normal feel. Not a bad time to sell, and a great time to buy!
JANUARY 2010
1/14/10:
Happy New Year! Results have been tallied - 2009 was a year of both positives and negatives. Central Tucson experienced a huge gain, a 25% higher number of single family homes were sold, versus 2008. Unfortunately, property value has lessened approximately 10% during 2009. Inventory (homes on the market) shrank about 22% v. 2008. 2009 foreclosures hit Pima county to the tune of 29% growth compared to 2008. Rental properties have experienced lower rental income, and vacancy factor is higher. Not to worry, UA student housing is currently experiencing a shortage situation, Tucson's job market is holding steady, and the happening of a new contract made with Singapore and Davis Monthan Air Force Base, with DM lined up to train Singapore's jet fighters, should keep demand going. Allow me to lay another positive note on you...today's Dow Jones closed at 10,710 - the first time it has crossed the 10,700 mark in 15 months. Enjoy your 2010, and don't hesitate to flag me down if you would like more details on the statistics and what lies ahead!
